There is an interesting paper recently published in the prestigious journal Conservation Biology by members of two National University of Singapore (NUS) labs titled “A robust non-parametric method for quantifying undetected extinctions” that came to our attention.

In it, they presented a novel method of estimating undetected extinction, i.e. the type of extinction events that may have taken place without humans taking note of them. They applied this new method to all 195 breeding bird species ever recorded in Singapore over the last 200 years. Of this number, 58 (~30%) are known to have gone extinct. They project probably another ~10 species have gone extinct without ever being discovered, thereby providing a more realistic extinction rate at ~33%.

The extinction of one-third of our resident bird species over the years represent a significant loss of our biodiversity. The authors also project based on the data from Singapore, an additional 14-16% loss of bird species in the region by the year 2100 with current deforestation rate. Some of our favorite birds are already extinct in Singapore. More will join their ranks without further conservation efforts, and it won’t be long before they are gone for good in the region as well.

One of the interesting side product of this new study is a new, extensively vetted list of all breeding birds ever recorded in Singapore based on thorough literature reviews going back to the 1800s. Reproduced with permission at the bottom of this post is a table containing the bird list of current and extinct species. This data represent a best effort by the authors at the time of publication. This website will use it as a starting point to update its own list in the future.

Photos of some of the birds that have gone extinct in Singapore:

Scarlet-rumped Trogon at Panti Forest. Although not listed as one of the known extinct birds, this is one plausible candidate for the undetected extinctions described in the paper as it is commonly found in nearby Panti Forest, Malaysia. Photo Credit: Vincent Ng

Garnet Pitta at Taman Negara, Malaysia. Photo Credit: Vincent Ng

Female Diard’s Trogon at Panti Forest. Photo Credit: Francis Yap

A pair of Orange-backed Woodpeckers at Panti Forest. Photo Credit: Francis Yap

Rufous-backed Dwarf Kingfisher from Bali. Photo Credit: Francis Yap

Black-and-yellow Broadbill at Panti Forest. Photo Credit: Francis Yap

Reference:
Chisholm R.A., Giam X., Sadanandan K.R., Fung T. & Rheindt F.E. (2016). A robust non-parametric method for quantifying undetected extinctions. Conservation Biology.

Table A1. Resident native birds of Singapore recorded since 1819. This list excludes species that were introduced by humans or for which evidence for breeding activity is too sparse. Some species for which breeding evidence is doubtful are included in the table but were excluded from the analysis described in the paper. Note: the table is reproduced from Chisholm et al. (2016). With a data collection period ending in 2014, a “last record” in 2014 does not indicate that the species has gone extinct in 2014, as it is simply the end of the data collection period.